One-Third of Israeli Voters Undecided as Likud Polling Rift Surfaces

Israeli voters head to the polls Tuesday with nearly one-third of them still uncommitted, according to a survey released in the days before the vote. That share of undecideds, combined with internal polling that divides the ruling Likud party, has party figures weighing two sharply different outcomes for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition. The election date of October 27 was set to let the current government complete its full term.

Likud members split along the forecasts produced by Shlomo Filber, who directs the party's internal polling. One camp reads his numbers as a path to victory; another worries about organized turnout among voters who oppose Netanyahu. A Likud source described the disagreement plainly: "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so." On Filber's projections, the same source said: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Party sources point to spending by nonprofits and outside organizations as the reason for that worry. They describe a campaign that ran the length of the election period with no direct party money behind it, covering social media, signage, field events, rides for Arab voters, and travel arrangements to bring Israelis home from abroad in order to vote. One Likud source called it "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing that the groups supply a support network for parties opposed to Netanyahu that falls outside party-financing rules. The sources offered no documentation for the sums they cited or for the claim that the activity broke the law.

Likud has also lodged a complaint with the Central Elections Committee, saying it concentrated on campaign video limits and the use of public resources while paying little attention to the groups' work. At the same time, the party is assembling its own ground operation for Tuesday, with restrictions on gathering information from polling stations, aimed at keeping right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates.

The party lost one effort to reshape the field when Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander who leads the People of Israel party, declined to leave the race. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan did not change Winter's position, and Sadan afterward issued a statement backing him. Likud continues to court supporters of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party dropped out after discussions with Likud that also touched on legislation that would let the party name a deputy minister.