640,000 New Ballots Hold Key to 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in a general election where first-time voters hold substantial influence over the final composition of the Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This demographic constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choices could determine up to 12 seats in the 120-member parliament.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, participated in a recent event in Tel Aviv addressed to more than 1,000 first-time voters. She stated she is voting to change the country's future. Chernyvsky, who is in an army preparation program in the Negev, attributes the nation's current issues to the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. She has not finalized her choice but intends to support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties belong to the opposition change bloc, which seeks to remove Netanyahu from office. He has served as prime minister since 2009, with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, co-sponsored the event with the Yigal Allon Center. She noted that Israel is a young country with a high birth rate. Hoffman said that if turnout is high, as their research suggests, these new voters will make a difference in the outcome.

The IDI surveyed prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters in May. Between 80% and 95% of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth expressed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents said they intend to vote. This stands in contrast to a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain they would vote, with another 19% thinking they would.

National security and the cost of life ranked as top concerns for both Jewish and Arab respondents. Hoffman observed that these young people experienced junior high during the pandemic, witnessed judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. She said they are worried about their future.

Political leanings remain difficult to predict. Hoffman noted that Jewish Israeli voters have moved rightward over the past two decades, but military service can raise questions about war goals that may shift views. An N12 poll on Sept. 23 found 74% of young people described themselves as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman added that mock elections at high schools showed most students backing Yashar and Beyachad, with little support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.

Individual voters reflect this range of preferences. Omer Gross of Jerusalem plans to back the Religious Zionist party, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, despite disagreeing with Smotrich's approach in Gaza. He supports the party's West Bank policies. Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc and wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party to close resource gaps and tackle crime.