Computer model picks Bills to beat Vikings in Super Bowl
Simulations of the remaining 2026 season place Buffalo and Minnesota as the top contenders, while the Cowboys are projected to claim the NFC East.
By Rosa Kovalenko ·
A computer simulation of the remaining 2026 NFL season projects the Buffalo Bills to win their first Super Bowl title.
The model, run by CBS Sports analytics expert Stephen Oh, processed 165 regular season games and 13 playoff contests. The simulation identifies the Bills as the most likely champion with a 12.97 percent probability. The Minnesota Vikings follow with an 11.15 percent chance. Only three other teams exceed an 8 percent likelihood: the Kansas City Chiefs at 9.5 percent, the San Francisco 49ers at 8.4 percent, and the Jacksonville Jaguars at 8.3 percent.
The projection places the Bills as the top seed in the AFC. They are currently 5-1. The Kansas City Chiefs, also 5-1, are projected to win the AFC West. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals are slated as the division leaders in the AFC South and AFC North, respectively. The Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens round out the AFC playoff field. The New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns are projected to miss the postseason.
In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings hold the top seed as the league's only undefeated team. Their record stands at 6-0. The San Francisco 49ers, 6-1, are projected to lead the NFC West. The Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys are forecast to win the NFC South and NFC East. The Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, and Chicago Bears complete the NFC bracket. The Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams are left out of the projected playoff field.
The Cowboys' path to the NFC East title is particularly narrow. The model assigns them a 38.5 percent chance to win the division. The New York Giants trail closely with a 37.3 percent chance. Dallas benefits from having the fourth easiest remaining strength of schedule.
The simulated wild card round features several high profile matchups. The Chiefs defeat the Baltimore Ravens 26-20 in a game pitting Patrick Mahomes against Lamar Jackson. The Jaguars beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 25-20. The Denver Broncos upset the Cincinnati Bengals 24-23. In the NFC, the 49ers overcome the Chicago Bears 27-24. The Seattle Seahawks defeat the Atlanta Falcons 24-21. The Detroit Lions beat the Dallas Cowboys 33-30 in the highest scoring game of the round.
The divisional round sees the Bills beat the Broncos 26-20 in Buffalo. The Chiefs defeat the Jaguars 23-21. The Vikings overcome the Seahawks 20-17. The 49ers edge the Lions 29-28.
In the conference championships, the Bills defeat the Chiefs 28-23 in Buffalo. This would mark the Bills' first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. The Vikings beat the 49ers 23-20. The model notes that the 49ers have won five of the six previous postseason meetings between these two teams.
The simulation concludes with a Super Bowl LXI matchup at SoFi Stadium. The Bills defeat the Vikings 26-21. Josh Allen leads Buffalo to the Lombardi Trophy. This would be the first championship for either franchise. The Bills and Vikings have combined for eight Super Bowl appearances without a win.
Source: CBS Sports
