Democrats target 70 House districts in bid to flip GOP seats

Democrats are positioned to take control of the House on Tuesday. Republicans held a narrow 218 to 214 majority heading into Election Day. They face severe headwinds as the party in power. Polls show voters are unhappy with the economy and the ongoing war in Iran.

The first results with national implications will likely come from Kentucky’s 5th and Indiana’s 5th Congressional Districts. Polls close in the 6 p.m. ET hour in both states. In the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump won Kentucky’s 5th by 15 points and Indiana’s 5th by 17 points. These margins serve as a preview for how much voters have soured on Republicans. Democrat Zach Dembo challenges Republican Ralph Alvarado in Kentucky. Both parties spent heavily in that race. If Democrats flip either seat, it signals a long night for the GOP.

Florida also counts and reports votes quickly. The state contains more than half a dozen races viewed as toss-ups. In Florida’s 22nd District, Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar. In the newly redrawn 25th District, incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer. Both parties invested significant sums in these contests. Results there will provide insight into races across the country.

Spending in the final seven days reached more than $10 million in a handful of House races, according to AdImpact data. In Michigan’s 7th District, Democrat William Lawrence challenges incumbent Republican Tom Barrett. Trump won that seat by just over one percent in 2024. The open 10th District features Democrat Christina Hines against Republican Mike Bouchard. In New York’s 17th District, Republican Mike Lawler leads Democrat Cait Conley, aided by a party ad spending advantage in the closing stretch. Three of Iowa’s four House races appear on the list of most expensive due to high-turnout governor and Senate races.

A Supreme Court decision rolling back part of the Voting Rights Act led Republican-led states to redraw House maps. These maps eliminated districts that favored Democrats in typical years. The current political environment is not typical. Seats held by Democrats Shomari Figures in Alabama’s 2nd, Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th, and Don Davis in North Carolina’s 1st are now considered toss-ups or favorable to Democrats. In Texas, Latino voters may swing back to Democratic candidates. This could prevent Republican Eric Flores from flipping Vicente Gonzalez’s seat in the 34th District or Tano Tijerina from unseating Henry Cuellar in the 28th District.

The extent of Democratic support in conservative communities is another key metric. Arkansas’s 2nd District has received surprising ad attention. Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democrat Chris Jones in the Little Rock based seat. Closer to $10 million will have been spent in the final months. Trump carried the district by 15 points in 2024. In Ohio, the Republican gerrymander could backfire in the 10th and 15th Districts. Both seats are held by Republicans, Mike Turner and Mike Carey. Trump won both by roughly 10 points in 2024. The districts stretch between the suburbs and exurbs of Dayton and Columbus. The margin in the North Carolina Senate race may determine if North Carolina’s 3rd District is in play. That district absorbed more Democratic leaning voters after the latest map redraw.