Brent Crude Holds Near $115 as Iran Defies Threats of New U.S. Strikes

Brent crude prices hovered near $115 per barrel in early Monday trading, sustaining the high levels reached late last week amid persistent supply concerns. The price stability comes as the United States and Iran continue indirect diplomatic contact while military posturing escalates in the Middle East.

President Donald Trump outlined his strategic options in an interview on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures. He stated, "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" On Friday, he referenced the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, which began on Feb. 28, by suggesting the U.S. may conduct another "Epic Fury." He also asserted that the U.S. currently controls the Strait of Hormuz.

The current standoff follows a timeline of escalating tensions that began in late February. The initial strikes marked the start of the conflict. By Thursday, Iran claimed to have struck at least four tankers near the strait, though these claims lacked corroboration. Trump accused Tehran of fabricating such attacks to influence oil prices before the midterm elections scheduled for next Tuesday.

Market volatility increased late last week as supply worries tied to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine intensified. The Northern Hemisphere is approaching winter, a season that typically sees a climb in gas demand. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center, UKMTO, reported that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Friday. The impact disabled the vessel, and the crew reported they were safe.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the situation at a televised event in Tehran. He stated that talk of a new war has not altered his government's thinking, saying, "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same." He added that Washington and Israel had tried twice already and would achieve no different outcome. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that the window for diplomacy remains open, with messages still being relayed to the U.S. through intermediaries, although direct talks have stalled for weeks.

Additional U.S. forces, including a third aircraft carrier group, have been deployed to the region. This military buildup coincides with a reduction in American diplomatic staffing in the area. Speculation has grown that Trump could order new strikes after the midterm elections on Tuesday.

Regional powers are actively attempting to ease tensions. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were scheduled to arrive in Tehran on Monday. They are set to hold security talks with Iranian officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit supports de-escalation and backs mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan, following eight months of war in the region.

Violence continued in Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition stated it intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh. The coalition also destroyed two missile launchers in Sanaa. The Iran-backed Houthi group claimed it hit Riyadh's international airport with a missile hours after flights resumed and struck oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its flagship investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran and its proxies might attack to disrupt Tuesday's elections. He told the public, "Don't test us." Defense Minister Israel Katz rejected a Channel 12 report of a clash between Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir over a new directive, calling the report "entirely baseless." Netanyahu had previously described the report as "rubbish." Iran's foreign ministry stated that the election result makes no difference to Tehran.

The combination of military readiness, diplomatic mediation, and energy market fluctuations defines the current situation. Oil prices remain elevated as traders weigh the risk of further supply disruptions against the possibility of a negotiated deal.