Florida Midterms: Early Vote Splits, Election Day Surge Expected

Florida voters face a Tuesday ballot box where early returns will show a distinct partisan divide. As of Monday, nearly 40 percent of the state's electorate had already voted for the midterm elections. The Florida Division of Elections reported that 5.4 million of the state's 13.7 million registered voters cast ballots via mail or at early voting sites. This total represents 69 percent of the overall turnout recorded in 2022 and 62 percent of the 2018 midterm turnout.

The party breakdown reveals that Democrats are participating at a higher rate than their Republican counterparts. Forty-nine percent of registered Democrats have voted, totaling 832,000 mail ballots and 1.2 million in-person votes. In contrast, 38.2 percent of registered Republicans have cast ballots. The GOP, which holds a 1.5 million advantage in registered voters, reported 679,000 mail ballots and 1.5 million in-person votes. Thirty-one percent of the 3.3 million registered unaffiliated voters have also participated, submitting 382,000 mail ballots and 669,000 in-person votes.

This election cycle marks a shift in voter registration trends. The Republican Party did not overtake Democrats in registered voters until 2021. Florida Republicans have controlled the state Legislature since 1996 and the governor's mansion since 1999. Nikki Fried, the Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman, was the last Democrat to win a statewide election, serving as agriculture commissioner after her 2018 victory.

Fried expressed confidence in her party's early performance. In an emailed fundraising pitch sent Monday morning, she stated that Democrats are showing up at rates unseen in years. Fried added that if the party maintains that energy on Election Day, she believes they will take back Florida.

Republican candidates anticipate a surge in voter turnout on Tuesday. Byron Donalds, the Republican candidate for governor, told the "Florida Unwired" podcast that many Republican voters will show up on Election Day. He noted that the party remains focused on that late turnout. In the 2022 midterm, Republican turnout exceeded Democratic turnout by approximately 600,000 votes.

Polls will open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. across the state on Tuesday. County elections officials plan to post early vote and mail-in ballot totals about 30 minutes after polls close. The state Division of Elections will begin posting official election results after 8 p.m., following the close of polls in the Central Time Zone.