Oil prices surge 60% as Qatar mediates before U.S. decision on Iran

Oil prices are 60% higher today than they were before the war began, according to reporting by NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawy.

The surge in costs follows a conflict that started eight months ago when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. The war has disrupted energy supplies and damaged regional infrastructure, with Brent crude rising sharply in response to the instability.

Qatar has led mediation efforts over the past 72 hours to stop new U.S. attacks on Iran. Mediators visited Tehran, and an Iranian delegation traveled to Doha. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told state media that no definitive conclusion has been reached yet. He mentioned discussions about a two-day plan where Iran would stop attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow direct talks between Washington and Tehran to resume.

President Donald Trump addressed the possibility of restarting the war at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago. He stated that the U.S. has knocked out most of Iran's military equipment, manufacturing capabilities, and nuclear sites. Trump said the U.S. still needs to address one or two remaining sites, a task he estimated could take 10 minutes. He noted that the U.S. is not in a hurry to make a move immediately after Tuesday's midterm elections.

Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, told senior commanders this weekend that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response without geographical limitations. Iranian state media explained that this means new Israeli or U.S. attacks would cause even greater damage than previous strikes. The Revolutionary Guard has also threatened to hit undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if war resumes.

Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, has seen physical damage from the conflict. On the first day of the war on February 28, Iran attacked U.S. military sites, including the 5th Fleet's logistics hub and warehouses. Batrawy reported seeing charred warehouses and hit radar equipment near the base. The base hosted 8,000 military personnel before the war, but that number has dropped to fewer than 100.

Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, spoke at the Manama Dialogue security forum about missiles and drones fired at the country by Iran. He noted that attacks targeted both U.S. military sites and civilian infrastructure. Al Zayani described the use of shared arteries as a tool of pressure and threat. Iran previously hit Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the peak of the conflict.

Gulf states view Iran as a top security threat but prefer political solutions over war. Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomat, said at the summit that the region must deal with the crisis using political tools. He argued that military solutions would complicate the scene and would not provide a quick solution. Saudi Arabia is currently struggling to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Diplomats and military generals in the Gulf say they do not know what Trump will decide after the elections. The lives of tens of millions of people in the region depend on that decision. The unified message from Gulf leaders is that further attacks on Iran would be devastating to their economies and security.