Midterm Turnout: Trump returns to Iowa and Kansas as early vote surges

Early voting across the United States is running at a pace that exceeds the 2022 midterm cycle by a wide margin. This surge has prompted President Donald Trump to alter his campaign schedule for the final weekend before Election Day. The White House announced that the president will hold in-person rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. These events replace a series of virtual rallies that were planned earlier in the week.

Trump explained the change in plans by citing direct feedback from campaign managers in the two states. He stated that he received calls from allies who argued his physical presence would be more impactful than a telerally. The president said, “they said, ‘if you can go, you would be better than a telerally.’” This reversal occurs with five days remaining until voters cast their ballots. An analysis of voting data indicates that nearly 10 million more Americans had voted by this point compared to the same period in 2022.

The increase in early ballots is particularly strong in states with competitive Senate races. In Iowa and Kansas, early voting is up approximately 30% from the 2022 levels. Both parties are focused on these contests as they fight for control of the chamber. The election has centered on affordability and the president’s approval ratings. Trump promised a series of rallies in early October to support Republican candidates. He has headlined 25 such events in the month of October. A scheduled rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, took place on Friday night.

The scheduling changes caused confusion among campaign staff and observers. Trump’s original plan placed him in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. The schedule then shifted to a three-day series of phone rallies intended to reach a wider audience. On Friday, the Iowa location moved from Dubuque to Cedar Rapids. Hours later, plans shifted back to Dubuque. The Republican National Committee confirmed the final schedule of stops in Dubuque and Salina.

Kansas and Iowa are critical for the Republican majority in the Senate. The president visited both states earlier in the month to support his candidates. In Kansas, he is aiding Senator Roger Marshall, who is seeking reelection. In Iowa, he is backing Ashley Hinson, a House member running for the Senate seat. Trump told a radio station in Kansas City that Marshall is “fantastic.” He credited the senator for pushing administration policies that benefit Kansas farmers, including the expansion of tax-free red-dyed diesel.

Trump also addressed the race in Iowa, where Hinson faces a Democratic opponent. The president criticized the challenger, a Methodist pastor named Adam Hamilton, as a “radical.” He claimed Hamilton has caused turmoil within the church due to his liberal views. Hamilton responded by saying that if Jesus were present today, Marshall would label him “woke.” The comment underscores the cultural divide in the campaign.

Voting trends in other states show similar spikes in early participation. In Texas, more than 6.3 million voters had cast ballots by Wednesday. This represents a 50% increase over the same period in 2022. Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas also saw increases of more than 30%. South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Senator Lindsey Graham, reported an 83% increase in early voting.

Money has flowed into the 2026 midterm elections at historic levels. Republicans have expressed concern that high costs and dissatisfaction with the president might suppress their turnout. Democrats have focused their messaging on these economic issues. In Michigan, the Senate race remains contentious following a primary dispute. Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the primary in August, has re-entered the conversation. She called on her former rival, Abdul El-Sayed, to address concerns from Jewish and Black voters. Stevens wrote that El-Sayed can begin unifying the party by getting Israel out of his explanations for high grocery prices.